The Problem.
In these uncertain times we leave the job of forecasting to the Government. Private institutions have their own estimates, and you could say the general public has twitter, but twitter's diverse opinions include everything from The Economist to the
the stripper index. It can not therefore be considered a consistent aggregate public prediction. The recent invention and popularity of binary prediction markets such as
Polymarket and
Kalshi has been a clear indicator that the the public is indeed interested in speculation and 'willing to put their money where their mouth is'. Markets have long been known to aggregate and sum large amounts of ideas and information. Speculators are constantly predicating the future, creating what is known as aggregate prediction.